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Monthly Statistics (Totals)
Total amount of foreclosures for Hillsborough County, Top number is the total foreclosures. Bottom number, EXAMPLE: 50/20 is 50 foreclosures, 20 got purchased by real people or businesses AKA third party buyers. The main purpose of this information is to get an over arching view point of what the average looks like and to also predict how many foreclosures are likely to be relisted after the COVID foreclosure moratorium is gone. Essentially, based on the below, there is going to be a massive amount of foreclosures coming up, most likely around January or February of 2021.
There is a lot of information that could be extracted from the data.
The following are my personal assessments
- There is a disproportionate amount of foreclosures each January compared to February of the same year, most likely due to the holidays in December. January is a top month.
- Surprisingly, the correlation between total auctions and auctions purchased by 3rd parties is not linear, aka; more auctions does not mean more sold. The percentage does not stay the same as the total number of auctions has decreased over time.
- Before COVID, the decrease in foreclosures had started to level off at a "bottom".
The exact amount of foreclosures is difficult to tell but based on the yearly trend, we can make some estimates as to how many foreclosures were cancelled. The below are estimates of how many foreclosures there "should" have been had COVID-19 not existed, then we subtracted the actual, to give us an estimated missed auctions based on the yearly trends.
- March 2020, Should have been: 327/70, was 327/46, 0/34 missed.
- April 2020, Should have been: 368/70, was 283/12, 85/58 missed
- May 2020, Should have been: 389/65, was 181/6, 208/59 missed
- June 2020, Should have been: 372/68, was 102/6, 270/62 missed
- July 2020, Should have been: 362/57, was 89/12, 273/45 missed
- August 2020, Should have been: 377/74, was 39/0, 338/74 missed
Conclusion: Between the months of March 2020 and August 2020, about 1,174 Auctions missed, and about 332 homes that went to third party bidders were missed. We believe that the missed auctions will begin to be re-listed in January of 2021. in which case there will be a massive spike in inventory for investors to choose from.
